The number of coronavirus cases across Essex is expected to fall significantly by the end of February.

According to an interactive map on the Imperial College London website, shows the probability of cases across the county will continue to reduce over the next two weeks.

The map currently predicts what might happen up until February 27, by which point the country will have been under lockdown for nearly two months.

The map rates each authority area in terms of its probability of recording more than 50, 100, 200, 300 or 500 cases per week.

Areas with a probably of recording between 75 and 100 per cent of more than 500 cases appear coloured purple on the map.

Here is how each area of Essex is impacted now and how it will change by the final week of February:

  • Colchester has a 37 per cent likelihood of more than 100 cases per week, falling to a zero per cent probability of more than 100 by the end of February
  • Tendring has a 97 per cent probability of more than 100 cases and it would fall to a 20 per cent probability of more than 100 cases by February 27
  • Maldon's probability of more than 100 cases per week is 38 per cent, falling to a 4 per cent probability of more than 100 cases per week
  • Rochford has a probability of more than 100 cases per week of 37 per cent, falling to a 4 per cent probability
  • Braintree probability of more than 100 cases per week is 82 per cent, falling to a probability of more than 100 cases per week of 10 per cent
  • Chelmsford probability of more than 100 cases per week is 44 per cent, this falls to one per cent by the end of the month
  • Basildon probability of more than 100 cases per week is 29 per cent, falling to a zero per cent probability of more than 100
  • Southend probability of more than 100 cases per week is 70 per cent, this falls to 4 per cent by the end of February
  • Castle Point probability of more than 100 cases per week is 46 per cent, this falls to one per cent by the end of the month
  • Thurrock has a 65 per cent probability of 100 cases per week, falling to 3 per cent

Imperial College London says: “In the map, we show the probability of an area being a hotspot in the next one, two and three weeks. The projections for hotspot assume no change in interventions and human behaviour since a week before the last observed data.”

To view the map visit https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map