JACKIE Doyle-Price in her weekly Thurrock Gazette column promises “more homes” but appears to be a rear view mirror driver, as she fails to identify the need for this housing.

This busy MP has failed to apply the skill of journalism to investigate the future being mapped out for Thurrock; in particular two major announcements since last year’s general election.

This time last year the leaders of Thurrock Council were ordered by her government to present a Local Plan showing how 32,000 new dwellings could be built in Thurrock, as it’s contribution to housing new households in the long overdue local plans for South Essex.

This instruction was announced to the public last autumn. The news caused such an uproar that the mayor had to abandon that council meeting.

To put that into perspective I calculate that as one new household for every two or three already living in Thurrock.

So who is going to be living in these new households?

We cannot really be sure.

However every year at about this time the government Office for National Statistics (ONS), staffed by clever people and powerful computer programmes create a “projection” – this is not a forecast, it simply says what will happen if what is happening now can carry on for ten years.

Actually, it is 8 years because it picks up the story from two years ago.

This year the main focus, which got all the publicity, is on the increase in old people, with a map of Costa Geriatrica authorities traditionally along the South coast at double the figures for the Thames Estuary.

The second focus is on the increase in population, which has been running around half a million a year for several years, and the churn that is occurring as our population struggles to house itself in acceptable homes.

The conclusion is that Thurrock will have grown by over 10% – that is more than one extra soul for every 10 we already have living here.

In rounded numbers, of the 166,000 people in Thurrock, 12 thousand of us will die and be more than replaced by the 24,000 who are born here – suggesting we are already enjoying an inflow of young people or those creating large families.

So the “natural” increase of 12,000 (ish) will be joined by 74,000 people from within the UK and 8,700 from foreign lands.

To help make room by 2026 there will be 71,000 people leaving for pastures new within the UK and 4,500 going abroad.

We should not jump to conclusions about who these people are and we should also ask ourselves “Are these people on the move in the Thames Estuary, jumping at the opportunity or are they being pushed?” Economics is probably doing a mixture of both.

If we look at the country as a whole, a population increase of 500,000 means building something like two new Milton Keynes each and every year complete with schools, hospitals roads etc.

The Independents’ forecast of Thurrock building 1,500 new homes a year is looking like an underestimate?

As building wage rates hit a post-financial-crisis high, we need to know who is available to build this and who is going to pay?

I wonder which way this new Thurrock with its new population will vote at the next two elections?

PETER HARTELL

Vange Corner Drive,

Fobbing