A LEADING election forecaster has predicted a Ukip win in Thurrock at the upcoming general election, saying the seat is “in the bag”.

Speaking to a national newspaper, Professor Matthew Goodwin, an associate professor of politics at Nottingham University, said that Thurrock was one of four seats the party has already won – two months before the UK goes to the polls.

Prof Goodwin added there would have to be a “monumental mistake and a car crash before May 7” for the party not take the seat, along with South Thanet in Kent, where party leader Nigel Farage is a candidate, as well as Clacton, and Rochester and Strood, which the party already holds.

Prof Goodwin said: “My view is that Ukip is likely to win six Parliamentary constituencies. They have pretty much got three or four seats now in the bag unless there is a monumental mistake and a car crash before May 7.”

Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price is currently Thurrock MP after narrowly winning the 2010 election. Polly Billington is the Labour candidate for Thurrock.

Prof Goodwin set out the 10 seats which he believes Ukip could win at the election including a third Essex seat in Castle Point, which is also held by the Tories. Nine of the seats are Conservative and one Labour.

The ten seats are: Clacton, Thanet South, Thurrock, Rochester and Strood, Castle Point, Boston and Skegness, Great Grimsby, Thanet North, Great Yarmouth and Cannock Chase.